By the time of the completion of its daily candle on Wednesday, bitcoin had gained more than 18% in just seven consecutive sessions, abruptly ending the steady decline that took bitcoin to its high above $30,000 in mid-April. It has dominated the price action since arriving. How unusual is such a huge increase in just one week’s time, and what has happened in the past after similar strong rallies? Let’s take a closer look at bitcoin’s price history to find out.
Bitcoin Price History Suggests Higher Prices Ahead
As we examine bitcoin’s price history for which there is reliable data (2011 to present), the number one cryptocurrency by market cap saw several instances of gains greater than or equal to +18% over a seven-day period. have experienced.
Bitcoin gains >=18% in seven days | BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
Because the number of occurrences will vary based on the holding time, we’ll start by listing how many times this has happened next to our hypothetical hold time of 7 days to 90 days. Holding time is defined as the length of time you hold a bitcoin before exiting it. For example, if someone hypothetically bought bitcoin after the trigger event (ie, +18% over a seven-day period) and sold it 30 days later, that would be a 30-day holding time.
Seven consecutive days of +18% gains in bitcoin by holding time (2011 – present)
- 98 events using the 7-day hold time
- 73 events using the 15-day hold time
- 57 events using the 30-day hold time
- 30 events using the 90-day hold time
Clearly, gains of this magnitude in just one week’s time are not unusual for bitcoin, an asset with many instances of large price increases, especially when considering its relatively short price history compared to traditional risk assets.
Bitcoin results have been a little less bullish in recent years
While gains of more than 18% in such a short period of time may turn some traders bearish, the data suggests otherwise, with historical average results across the board for all holding periods from 2011 to present being clearly positive.
Bitcoin gained over 18% for seven consecutive days with different hold times. 2011 – present.
Because bitcoin’s early price history has arguably yielded much higher gains than its recent history, let’s take a look at the average results for the same level of gains over a one-week time period, but only examine data from the last five years ( From 6/23/18 to 6/23/18) Present).
Bitcoin gained over 18% for seven consecutive days with different hold times. last five years.
While once again the results are positive across the board, the hypothetical results are quite low on recent data, with a 90-day average return of +25.6% over the past five years, a far cry from the same 90-day return of +109.4%. -Day window on complete price history from 2011 to present.
While some traders may argue that the data is less representative due to the occurrence of two major bearish markets for bitcoin and crypto over the past five years, bitcoin showed positive traction on average for both time periods across all hold times we examined. Is. Although the past is no predictor of the future, the recent strong price surge suggests that bitcoin is poised for more gains in the relatively near term.
source: www.newsbtc.com
